Could Health Modeling be Improved or Better Used?

In this Chapter we discuss some of the modeling improvements emerging from PART II that could possibly be addressed in the near-future. Next, we note that although for some health threats – e.g., diabetes, antimicrobial resistance, system deficiencies – the best ‘value for money’ solutions have already been identified, so far funds for implementation had not been made available. We investigate why this may have occurred and suggest possible future alternative researcher approaches. Next we ask whether longer term modeling improvements are also needed to address the emerging chronic disease related health threats (Chapter 9). Finally, in view of the rapid changes in access to knowledge via the internet, and the need by decision makers and health professionals for more rapid and more readily accessible ‘evidence-based’ analyses, we ask whether some longer term modeling improvements could lead to webbased versions of the outputs produced by current models.

Overall, it seems uncertain that Australia can in future maintain its top health status internationally. However, we conclude that the ability to identify ‘best value for money’ in health investments will become even more important in future than it had been in previous decades.

Keywords: Modeling improvements; more coherent datasets; up-to-date guidelines; adaptable health structures; less system deficiencies; improved research to policy links; internet use.