Psychological Assessment and Interventions for Individuals Linked to Radicalization and Lone Wolf Terrorism

Preventing Radicalization and Lone Wolf Terrorism: Theoretical Models of Prediction in Psychology and Social Sciences

Author(s): Carlo Lazzari*, Abdul Nusair and Marco Rabottini

Pp: 81-99 (19)

DOI: 10.2174/9789814998338121010008

* (Excluding Mailing and Handling)

Abstract

Radicalization and terrorism are global events affecting different countries and present in diverse historical contexts. A historical account indicates the development of terrorism in human history to shed some light on radicalization. There are elements of radicalization in the dark history of humanity that still today bear consequences on their victims and their progenies. However, at first analysis, terrorist attacks occur unexpectedly. We used a theoretical approach to mathematical and statistical instruments to make a forecast from available data. Delphi groups of psychiatrists, experts in the study of radicalization, met regularly to provide joint predictions about topics of concern presented as case scenarios. The data from peergroup discussions were analyzed for drawing consensus and forecasting radicalization and terrorism. Mathematical prediction models included probability estimates, Kappa statistics, Boolean logics, fractal mathematics, and geometrical progressions. The study supports the hypothesis that with sufficient data analysis and mathematical models, radicalization and terrorism could be prevented using forecasting methods and prompt prevention.


Keywords: Delphi group, Forecasting, Lone Wolf, Prevention, Psychology, Radicalization.

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      • 13. app/Models/UserAccess/UserAccess.php:1266
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      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • (select j.user_access_id,j.volume_id,j.user_id,j.from_ip,j.to_ip,j.type,j.track,"Trial Access" as access_base_text, CASE j.type WHEN 111 THEN true ELSE false END as terms_popup, "S" as content_download_type, null as restricted_user_access_key, null as restricted_user_access_type, CASE j.track WHEN 0 THEN false ELSE true END as tracksAccessByVolume,"chapter" as access_level, j.chapter_id from `user_access_chapter_trail` as `j` inner join `user_access_info` as `info` on `j`.`user_access_id` = `info`.`user_access_id` where ((j.from_ip <= 59072082 and j.to_ip >=59072082 )) and ((j.from_date <= 1739972122 and j.to_date >= 1739972122 and j.perpetual= 0) or (j.from_date is null and j.to_date is null and j.perpetual= 1)) and j.chapter_id = 15355) union (select j.user_access_id,j.volume_id,j.user_id,j.from_ip,j.to_ip,j.type,j.track,"Subscribed" as access_base_text, false as terms_popup, "S" as content_download_type, null as restricted_user_access_key, null as restricted_user_access_type, CASE j.track WHEN 0 THEN false ELSE true END as tracksAccessByVolume,"chapter" as access_level, j.chapter_id from `user_access_chapter_corporate` as `j` inner join `user_access_info` as `info` on `j`.`user_access_id` = `info`.`user_access_id` where ((j.from_ip <= 59072082 and j.to_ip >=59072082 )) and ((j.from_date <= 1739972122 and j.to_date >= 1739972122 and j.perpetual= 0) or (j.from_date is null and j.to_date is null and j.perpetual= 1)) and j.chapter_id = 15355) union (select j.user_access_id,j.volume_id,j.user_id,j.from_ip,j.to_ip,j.type,j.track,"Token Based Access" as access_base_text, false as terms_popup, "R" as content_download_type, j.uc_id as restricted_user_access_key, "v" as restricted_user_access_type, CASE j.track WHEN 0 THEN false ELSE true END as tracksAccessByVolume,"chapter" as access_level, j.chapter_id from `user_access_chapter_token` as `j` inner join `user_access_info` as `info` on `j`.`user_access_id` = `info`.`user_access_id` where ((j.from_ip <= 59072082 and j.to_ip >=59072082 )) and ((j.from_date <= 1739972122 and j.to_date >= 1739972122 and j.perpetual= 0) or (j.from_date is null and j.to_date is null and j.perpetual= 1)) and j.chapter_id = 15355)
      870μsalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022UserAccess.php#1266
      Backtrace
      • 13. app/Models/UserAccess/UserAccess.php:1266
      • 14. app/Http/Controllers/ChapterController.php:1549
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • select b.banner_link, b.banner_name, b.banner_script, b.banner_remarks, b.banner_file_name, b.banner_placement, bd.content_type, bd.content_id from `tbl_banner` as `b` inner join `tbl_banner_detail` as `bd` on `bd`.`banner_id` = `b`.`banner_id` inner join `users` as `u` on `u`.`id` = `b`.`updated_by` where `b`.`banner_ebook` = 1 and `bd`.`content_type` = 'B' and `bd`.`content_id` = 3107 and `b`.`banner_from_date` <= 1739972122 and `b`.`banner_to_date` >= 1739972122 and `b`.`banner_status` = 'A' order by `b`.`banner_id` desc
      1.46msalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022Banner.php#95
      Bindings
      • 0: 1
      • 1: B
      • 2: 3107
      • 3: 1739972122
      • 4: 1739972122
      • 5: A
      Backtrace
      • 13. app/Models/Banner.php:95
      • 14. app/Http/helpers.php:404
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:124
      • 18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58
      • 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/CompilerEngine.php:73
    • select count(*) as aggregate from `uc_cart_products` where cart_id='e5cc20516938332b0a0082f401f1709f'
      380μsalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022Cart.php#271
      Backtrace
      • 15. app/Models/Cart.php:271
      • 16. view::layouts._header:260
      • 18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:124
      • 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58
      • 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/CompilerEngine.php:73
    App\Models\Keywords
    6Keywords.php#?
    App\Models\Chapter
    1Chapter.php#?
    App\Models\Ebook
    1Ebook.php#?
        _token
        tKcyUxWRsatWPG3AnhNxHjWP5DHOkCMrpzruY8px
        uc_cart_id
        e5cc20516938332b0a0082f401f1709f
        _previous
        array:1 [ "url" => "https://alpha.eurekaselect.com/chapter/15355" ]
        _flash
        array:2 [ "old" => [] "new" => [] ]
        PHPDEBUGBAR_STACK_DATA
        []
        path_info
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        status_code
        200
        
        status_text
        OK
        format
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        content_type
        text/html; charset=UTF-8
        request_query
        []
        
        request_request
        []
        
        request_headers
        0 of 0
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        request_cookies
        0 of 0
        array:1 [ "wayfindertarget" => null ]
        response_headers
        0 of 0
        array:5 [ "content-type" => array:1 [ 0 => "text/html; charset=UTF-8" ] "cache-control" => array:1 [ 0 => "no-cache, private" ] "date" => array:1 [ 0 => "Wed, 19 Feb 2025 13:35:22 GMT" ] "set-cookie" => array:2 [ 0 => "XSRF-TOKEN=eyJpdiI6InBBSzVvKzh3VkZLbkFjMktuN1J4TFE9PSIsInZhbHVlIjoiWjM4T1Avcmg0bnBRZGFlcW5zR1lhbkd1b3NvUjRJTzN4SGVuOUFRb2NPVVl2NzM1ZEViVitvWjdnb0plNTJWKzJpUE96N2FqbURGT3BIRDNjOGpwZFdqYUZKSkJWdGNwcVpjVk1HWDR2S0xGUEpKOHhYbWdqU0RDR1ZmYlp6RXciLCJtYWMiOiI5N2QyMDc5N2VjZGFkYmU5MDRmM2NhZmM2ZDE1MjNmMWUxOWU3OTg0OTVjZDU0ZDRjYjVmODAyMTExNjg4MGU5IiwidGFnIjoiIn0%3D; expires=Sat, 22 Feb 2025 01:35:22 GMT; Max-Age=216000; path=/; secure; samesite=laxXSRF-TOKEN=eyJpdiI6InBBSzVvKzh3VkZLbkFjMktuN1J4TFE9PSIsInZhbHVlIjoiWjM4T1Avcmg0bnBRZGFlcW5zR1lhbkd1b3NvUjRJTzN4SGVuOUFRb2NPVVl2NzM1ZEViVitvWjdnb0plNTJWKzJpUE96N" 1 => "alphaeurekaselectnet_session=eyJpdiI6IkRhQndWL0k5ekxEN2JPSzZ3dkJMSGc9PSIsInZhbHVlIjoiRmFScWpETnM2QlNhVjMzV2R3ZHVNZ2ozRXAwT1BGaDVZS2QvMXhOMUtNcFB2Uk1rcGlMdkJaNE5XQ3RrSGx6SFRTRWkxT2I0azVrb0dlM1dhMTU3UDNqQWxQMjhNN0VUellDbzJGcjUvYzhlSGNzazZSYUhCVlhjWlUyYXlOUG4iLCJtYWMiOiIyODRhOTY1MjM1ZWFiMDAzNTM5NWVkYzEyZmVhNjM4MThkMjU4ZTkwZDE3NDM3MTZkZjQ3ODhkNTI5MWYyOGY5IiwidGFnIjoiIn0%3D; path=/; secure; httponly; samesite=laxalphaeurekaselectnet_session=eyJpdiI6IkRhQndWL0k5ekxEN2JPSzZ3dkJMSGc9PSIsInZhbHVlIjoiRmFScWpETnM2QlNhVjMzV2R3ZHVNZ2ozRXAwT1BGaDVZS2QvMXhOMUtNcFB2Uk1rcGlMdkJaNE5" ] "Set-Cookie" => array:2 [ 0 => "XSRF-TOKEN=eyJpdiI6InBBSzVvKzh3VkZLbkFjMktuN1J4TFE9PSIsInZhbHVlIjoiWjM4T1Avcmg0bnBRZGFlcW5zR1lhbkd1b3NvUjRJTzN4SGVuOUFRb2NPVVl2NzM1ZEViVitvWjdnb0plNTJWKzJpUE96N2FqbURGT3BIRDNjOGpwZFdqYUZKSkJWdGNwcVpjVk1HWDR2S0xGUEpKOHhYbWdqU0RDR1ZmYlp6RXciLCJtYWMiOiI5N2QyMDc5N2VjZGFkYmU5MDRmM2NhZmM2ZDE1MjNmMWUxOWU3OTg0OTVjZDU0ZDRjYjVmODAyMTExNjg4MGU5IiwidGFnIjoiIn0%3D; expires=Sat, 22-Feb-2025 01:35:22 GMT; path=/; secureXSRF-TOKEN=eyJpdiI6InBBSzVvKzh3VkZLbkFjMktuN1J4TFE9PSIsInZhbHVlIjoiWjM4T1Avcmg0bnBRZGFlcW5zR1lhbkd1b3NvUjRJTzN4SGVuOUFRb2NPVVl2NzM1ZEViVitvWjdnb0plNTJWKzJpUE96N" 1 => "alphaeurekaselectnet_session=eyJpdiI6IkRhQndWL0k5ekxEN2JPSzZ3dkJMSGc9PSIsInZhbHVlIjoiRmFScWpETnM2QlNhVjMzV2R3ZHVNZ2ozRXAwT1BGaDVZS2QvMXhOMUtNcFB2Uk1rcGlMdkJaNE5XQ3RrSGx6SFRTRWkxT2I0azVrb0dlM1dhMTU3UDNqQWxQMjhNN0VUellDbzJGcjUvYzhlSGNzazZSYUhCVlhjWlUyYXlOUG4iLCJtYWMiOiIyODRhOTY1MjM1ZWFiMDAzNTM5NWVkYzEyZmVhNjM4MThkMjU4ZTkwZDE3NDM3MTZkZjQ3ODhkNTI5MWYyOGY5IiwidGFnIjoiIn0%3D; path=/; secure; httponlyalphaeurekaselectnet_session=eyJpdiI6IkRhQndWL0k5ekxEN2JPSzZ3dkJMSGc9PSIsInZhbHVlIjoiRmFScWpETnM2QlNhVjMzV2R3ZHVNZ2ozRXAwT1BGaDVZS2QvMXhOMUtNcFB2Uk1rcGlMdkJaNE5" ] ]
        session_attributes
        0 of 0
        array:5 [ "_token" => "tKcyUxWRsatWPG3AnhNxHjWP5DHOkCMrpzruY8px" "uc_cart_id" => "e5cc20516938332b0a0082f401f1709f" "_previous" => array:1 [ "url" => "https://alpha.eurekaselect.com/chapter/15355" ] "_flash" => array:2 [ "old" => [] "new" => [] ] "PHPDEBUGBAR_STACK_DATA" => [] ]
        ClearShow all
        Date ↕MethodURLData
        #12025-02-19 13:35:22GET/chapter/15355112198