Login Register Cart 0
Generic placeholder image

Current Signal Transduction Therapy

Editor-in-Chief

ISSN (Print): 1574-3624
ISSN (Online): 2212-389X

Back
Journal Home About Journal Editorial Board Journal Insight Current Issue Volumes/Issues
Subscribe
Research Article

Evaluation and Prediction of End of Second-wave and Starting of Thirdwave Covid-19 Cases in India

Author(s): Sachin Sharma and Karan Veer*

Volume 17, Issue 2, 2022

Published on: 11 April, 2022

Article ID: e070322201797 Pages: 7

DOI: 10.2174/1574362417666220307100017

Price: $65

Abstract

Background: The second wave of coronavirus has appeared to be an extensive uphill of the number of daily new confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths than the first wave in India and the whole world. In India, the second wave of COVID-19 is much dangerous than the first wave that hit on 14th April 2020. The maximum number of new cases was 406901 recorded on May 7, 5.3 times more than the first wave peak. Many researchers worldwide are using machine learning prediction models to forecast the upcoming trends of this pandemic.

Methods: This study used an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the daily new confirmed cases, daily new deaths, and daily new recoveries between and after the second wave of COVID-19 in India. The dataset was collected from March 14, 2020- July 7, 2021, using the ARIMA model to predict corona cases for the next 60 days.

Results: In the context of the current scenario in India, the second wave will score low new cases in mid-August 2021, and the third wave will hit the country in the middle of September 2021.

Conclusion: The ARIMA model was chosen based on AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) values and acquired the maximum accuracy of 95%.

Keywords: Covid-19, Second wave, third wave, Time series model, ARIMA, Forecast.

Graphical Abstract

COVID19 INDIAAvailable from: (Accessed on: 13 May 2021). The second wave of COVID-19 may peak by April 15-20: What we know so far. Available from: (Accessed on: 13 May 2021). How the 2nd COVID wave is different and why the next four weeks are crucial. Available from: (Accessed on: 13 May 2021). First vs. second wave of COVID-19 in India: Things you need to know. Times of India. Available from: (Accessed on: 13 May 2021). Explained: What has changed in the second wave of COVID-19? The Indian Express. Available from: (Accessed on: 13 May 2021). Why coronaviruses second wave is devastating Why coronaviruses second wave is devastating COVID-19 in IndiaAvailable from: (Accessed on: 13 May 2021). Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol Sharma P. 41 1478 2020 10.1017/ice.2020.186 Sharma P.; Veer K.; Action and problems related to the COVID-19 outbreak in India. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2020,41(12),1478-1479 E Clin Med Kar S.K. 36 100915 2021 10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.100915 Kar S.K.; Ransing R.; Arafat S.M.Y.; Menon V.; Second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in India: Barriers to effective governmental response. E Clin Med 2021,36,100915 Pathogens Sarkar A. 10 1 2021 10.3390/pathogens10091222 Sarkar A.; Chakrabarti A.K.; Dutta S.; COVID-19 Infection in India: A comparative analysis of thesecond wave with the first wave. Pathogens 2021,10(9),1-15 PLoS One Iftimie S. 16 e0248029 2021 Iftimie S.; López-Azcona A.F.; Vallverdú I.; First and second wave of coronavirus disease-19: A comparitive study in hospitalized pa-tients in Reus, Spain. PLoS One 2021,16(3),e0248029 Diabetes Metab Syndr Reddy M.M. 15 102327 2021 10.1016/j.dsx.2021.102327 Reddy M.M.; Zaman K.; Mishra S.K.; Yadav P.; Kant R.; Differences in age distribution in first and second waves of COVID-19 in eastern Uttar Pradesh, India. Diabetes Metab Syndr 2021,15(6),102327 COVID-19 2nd wave in India: Know Differences in symptoms, disease spread, and impact of mutant stains here. Available from: (Accessed on: 13 May 2021). Brain Behav Immun Chakraborty C. 96 1 2021 10.1016/j.bbi.2021.05.018 Chakraborty C.; Sharma A.R.; Bhattacharya M.; Agoramoorthy G.; Lee S.S.; The current second wave and COVID-19 vaccination status in India. Brain Behav Immun 2021,96,1-4 COVID-19 vaccination in India. Available from: (Accessed on: 13 May 2021).

Rights & Permissions Print Cite
Article Metrics
11
© 2024 Bentham Science Publishers | Privacy Policy