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Technology Transfer and Entrepreneurship (Discontinued)

Editor-in-Chief

ISSN (Print): 2213-8099
ISSN (Online): 2213-8102

Review Article

Effects of the Exercisable Duration and Quantity of Real Options in Multi-stages

Author(s): Katsunori Kume and Takao Fujiwara

Volume 3, Issue 2, 2016

Page: [107 - 118] Pages: 12

DOI: 10.2174/2213809903666160419123332

Price: $65

Abstract

In response to the daily repeated supply chain of soft drink under uncertain demand, we apply the real options approach to a flexible production amount. A supplier can exercise call and put options in order to modulate between the demands and efficiency of a supplier’s productive capacity. First, we examine the impact on the option value (OV) between the three-stage cycle and the multi-stage for a one-year duration using Monte-Carlo simulation. The comparison shows that the options with multi-stage can increase the value. The reason is that the former options are only optimized within each three short stages, while the latter options are totally optimized in one year. Next on options with multi-stage, we examine the impact of the ratio of the exercisable option quantity to the demand on the OV. The OV can be gradually increased in proportion to a larger ratio, but the growth ratio is gradually reduced. Our study shows that options can yield OV in proportion to both a continuous number of stage and volume of exercised quantity.

Keywords: Real options, Monte-Carlo simulation, multi-stages, soft drink.


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      • 11. app/Models/Article.php:408
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      • 17. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2517
      • 18. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2035
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      • 16. app/Models/Subject.php:220
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      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
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      • 13. app/Models/Article.php:528
      • 14. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2070
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
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      • 13. app/Models/Article.php:528
      • 14. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2071
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
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      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
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      • 13. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 14. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
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      • 15. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2101
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • select `bo`.* from `bundle_offer` as `bo` where `bo`.`bundle_status` = 'A' order by `bo`.`bundle_id` desc
      330μsalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022BundleOffer.php#57
      Bindings
      • 0: A
      Backtrace
      • 13. app/Models/BundleOffer.php:57
      • 14. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2108
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • select * from `tbl_ht_submission` as `h` where `h`.`subtitle` = 'TTE' and (h.proposal_closing_date = 0 OR TO_DAYS(FROM_UNIXTIME(h.proposal_closing_date)) >= TO_DAYS(NOW())) order by `h`.`manuscript` asc
      380μsalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022Article.php#2025
      Bindings
      • 0: TTE
      Backtrace
      • 13. app/Models/Article.php:2025
      • 14. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2112
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • select count(*) as total_count, content_type_access_id as access_type from journal_access where content_type_id = '75080' and content_type = 'a' and ( (from_date <= CURDATE() and to_date >= CURDATE() and perpetual= 0) or (from_date is null and to_date is null and perpetual= 1) )
      490μsalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022ContentAccess.php#647
      Backtrace
      • 11. app/Models/ContentAccess.php:647
      • 12. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2186
      • 13. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 14. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • select count(*) as total_count, content_type_access_id as access_type from journal_access where content_type_id = '7180' and content_type = 'i' and ( (from_date <= CURDATE() and to_date >= CURDATE() and perpetual= 0) or (from_date is null and to_date is null and perpetual= 1) )
      450μsalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022ContentAccess.php#647
      Backtrace
      • 11. app/Models/ContentAccess.php:647
      • 12. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2207
      • 13. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 14. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • select count(*) as total_count, content_type_access_id as access_type from journal_access where content_type_id = '1865' and content_type = 'v' and ( (from_date <= CURDATE() and to_date >= CURDATE() and perpetual= 0) or (from_date is null and to_date is null and perpetual= 1) )
      420μsalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022ContentAccess.php#647
      Backtrace
      • 11. app/Models/ContentAccess.php:647
      • 12. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2231
      • 13. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 14. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • (select j.user_access_id,j.volume_id,j.user_id,j.from_ip,j.to_ip,j.type,j.track,"Trial Access" as access_base_text, CASE j.type WHEN 111 THEN true ELSE false END as terms_popup, "S" as content_download_type, null as restricted_user_access_key, null as restricted_user_access_type, CASE j.track WHEN 0 THEN false ELSE true END as tracksAccessByVolume,"volume" as access_level,"" as issue_id,"" as article_id from `user_access_journal_volume_trail` as `j` inner join `user_access_info` as `info` on `j`.`user_access_id` = `info`.`user_access_id` where ((j.from_ip <= 59576018 and j.to_ip >=59576018 )) and ((j.from_date <= 1740774393 and j.to_date >= 1740774393 and j.perpetual= 0) or (j.from_date is null and j.to_date is null and j.perpetual= 1)) and j.volume_id = 1865) union (select j.user_access_id,j.volume_id,j.user_id,j.from_ip,j.to_ip,j.type,j.track,"Subscribed" as access_base_text, false as terms_popup, "S" as content_download_type, null as restricted_user_access_key, null as restricted_user_access_type, CASE j.track WHEN 0 THEN false ELSE true END as tracksAccessByVolume,"volume" as access_level,"" as issue_id,"" as article_id from `user_access_journal_volume_corporate` as `j` inner join `user_access_info` as `info` on `j`.`user_access_id` = `info`.`user_access_id` where ((j.from_ip <= 59576018 and j.to_ip >=59576018 )) and ((j.from_date <= 1740774393 and j.to_date >= 1740774393 and j.perpetual= 0) or (j.from_date is null and j.to_date is null and j.perpetual= 1)) and j.volume_id = 1865) union (select j.user_access_id,j.volume_id,j.user_id,j.from_ip,j.to_ip,j.type,j.track,"Token Based Access" as access_base_text, false as terms_popup, "R" as content_download_type, j.uc_id as restricted_user_access_key, "v" as restricted_user_access_type, CASE j.track WHEN 0 THEN false ELSE true END as tracksAccessByVolume,"volume" as access_level,"" as issue_id,"" as article_id from `user_access_journal_volume_token` as `j` inner join `user_access_info` as `info` on `j`.`user_access_id` = `info`.`user_access_id` where ((j.from_ip <= 59576018 and j.to_ip >=59576018 )) and ((j.from_date <= 1740774393 and j.to_date >= 1740774393 and j.perpetual= 0) or (j.from_date is null and j.to_date is null and j.perpetual= 1)) and j.volume_id = 1865)
      60.34msalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022UserAccess.php#1266
      Backtrace
      • 13. app/Models/UserAccess/UserAccess.php:1266
      • 14. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2272
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • (select j.user_access_id,j.volume_id,j.user_id,j.from_ip,j.to_ip,j.type,j.track,"Trial Access" as access_base_text, CASE j.type WHEN 111 THEN true ELSE false END as terms_popup, "S" as content_download_type, null as restricted_user_access_key, null as restricted_user_access_type, CASE j.track WHEN 0 THEN false ELSE true END as tracksAccessByVolume,"issue" as access_level,j.issue_id,"" as article_id from `user_access_issue_trail` as `j` inner join `user_access_info` as `info` on `j`.`user_access_id` = `info`.`user_access_id` where ((j.from_ip <= 59576018 and j.to_ip >=59576018 )) and ((j.from_date <= 1740774393 and j.to_date >= 1740774393 and j.perpetual= 0) or (j.from_date is null and j.to_date is null and j.perpetual= 1)) and j.issue_id = 7180) union (select j.user_access_id,j.volume_id,j.user_id,j.from_ip,j.to_ip,j.type,j.track,"Subscribed" as access_base_text, false as terms_popup, "S" as content_download_type, null as restricted_user_access_key, null as restricted_user_access_type, CASE j.track WHEN 0 THEN false ELSE true END as tracksAccessByVolume,"issue" as access_level,j.issue_id,"" as article_id from `user_access_issue_corporate` as `j` inner join `user_access_info` as `info` on `j`.`user_access_id` = `info`.`user_access_id` where ((j.from_ip <= 59576018 and j.to_ip >=59576018 )) and ((j.from_date <= 1740774393 and j.to_date >= 1740774393 and j.perpetual= 0) or (j.from_date is null and j.to_date is null and j.perpetual= 1)) and j.issue_id = 7180) union (select j.user_access_id,j.volume_id,j.user_id,j.from_ip,j.to_ip,j.type,j.track,"Token Based Access" as access_base_text, false as terms_popup, "R" as content_download_type, j.uc_id as restricted_user_access_key, "v" as restricted_user_access_type, CASE j.track WHEN 0 THEN false ELSE true END as tracksAccessByVolume,"issue" as access_level,j.issue_id,"" as article_id from `user_access_issue_token` as `j` inner join `user_access_info` as `info` on `j`.`user_access_id` = `info`.`user_access_id` where ((j.from_ip <= 59576018 and j.to_ip >=59576018 )) and ((j.from_date <= 1740774393 and j.to_date >= 1740774393 and j.perpetual= 0) or (j.from_date is null and j.to_date is null and j.perpetual= 1)) and j.issue_id = 7180)
      1.11msalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022UserAccess.php#1266
      Backtrace
      • 13. app/Models/UserAccess/UserAccess.php:1266
      • 14. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2297
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • (select j.user_access_id,j.volume_id,j.user_id,j.from_ip,j.to_ip,j.type,j.track,"Trial Access" as access_base_text, CASE j.type WHEN 111 THEN true ELSE false END as terms_popup, "S" as content_download_type, null as restricted_user_access_key, null as restricted_user_access_type, CASE j.track WHEN 0 THEN false ELSE true END as tracksAccessByVolume,"article" as access_level, j.issue_id, j.article_id from `user_access_article_trail` as `j` inner join `user_access_info` as `info` on `j`.`user_access_id` = `info`.`user_access_id` where ((j.from_ip <= 59576018 and j.to_ip >=59576018 )) and ((j.from_date <= 1740774393 and j.to_date >= 1740774393 and j.perpetual= 0) or (j.from_date is null and j.to_date is null and j.perpetual= 1)) and j.article_id = 75080) union (select j.user_access_id,j.volume_id,j.user_id,j.from_ip,j.to_ip,j.type,j.track,"Subscribed" as access_base_text, false as terms_popup, "S" as content_download_type, null as restricted_user_access_key, null as restricted_user_access_type, CASE j.track WHEN 0 THEN false ELSE true END as tracksAccessByVolume,"article" as access_level, j.issue_id, j.article_id from `user_access_article_corporate` as `j` inner join `user_access_info` as `info` on `j`.`user_access_id` = `info`.`user_access_id` where ((j.from_ip <= 59576018 and j.to_ip >=59576018 )) and ((j.from_date <= 1740774393 and j.to_date >= 1740774393 and j.perpetual= 0) or (j.from_date is null and j.to_date is null and j.perpetual= 1)) and j.article_id = 75080) union (select j.user_access_id,j.volume_id,j.user_id,j.from_ip,j.to_ip,j.type,j.track,"Token Based Access" as access_base_text, false as terms_popup, "R" as content_download_type, j.uc_id as restricted_user_access_key, "v" as restricted_user_access_type, CASE j.track WHEN 0 THEN false ELSE true END as tracksAccessByVolume,"article" as access_level, j.issue_id, j.article_id from `user_access_article_token` as `j` inner join `user_access_info` as `info` on `j`.`user_access_id` = `info`.`user_access_id` where ((j.from_ip <= 59576018 and j.to_ip >=59576018 )) and ((j.from_date <= 1740774393 and j.to_date >= 1740774393 and j.perpetual= 0) or (j.from_date is null and j.to_date is null and j.perpetual= 1)) and j.article_id = 75080)
      1.31msalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022UserAccess.php#1266
      Backtrace
      • 13. app/Models/UserAccess/UserAccess.php:1266
      • 14. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2329
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • select * from `article` where `first_page` < '107' and is_uploaded = 1 and issue_id = 7180 order by cast(first_page as SIGNED) desc limit 1
      1.76msalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022Article.php#1819
      Bindings
      • 0: 107
      Backtrace
      • 14. app/Models/Article.php:1819
      • 15. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2470
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • select * from `article` where `last_page` > '118' and is_uploaded = 1 and issue_id = 7180 order by cast(first_page as SIGNED) asc limit 1
      3.36msalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022Article.php#1831
      Bindings
      • 0: 118
      Backtrace
      • 14. app/Models/Article.php:1831
      • 15. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2472
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • select `language_id` from `multilanguage` where `short_code` = 'en'
      1.95msalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022ArticleController.php#2497
      Bindings
      • 0: en
      Backtrace
      • 14. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2497
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
      • 18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:206
    • select `source_lang_label`, `target_lang_label` from `multilanguage_labels` where `target_lang_id` = 1
      3.53msalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022MultiLanguage.php#23
      Bindings
      • 0: 1
      Backtrace
      • 13. app/Models/MultiLanguage.php:23
      • 14. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2498
      • 15. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 16. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
    • select `id` from `multilanguage_article` where `article_id` = 75080 limit 1
      4.03msalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022ArticleController.php#2506
      Bindings
      • 0: 75080
      Backtrace
      • 16. app/Http/Controllers/ArticleController.php:2506
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Controller.php:54
      • 18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/ControllerDispatcher.php:43
      • 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:260
      • 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Routing/Route.php:206
    • select b.banner_link, b.banner_name, b.banner_script, b.banner_remarks, b.banner_file_name, b.banner_placement, bd.content_type, bd.content_id from `tbl_banner` as `b` inner join `tbl_banner_detail` as `bd` on `bd`.`banner_id` = `b`.`banner_id` inner join `users` as `u` on `u`.`id` = `b`.`updated_by` inner join `journal` as `j` on `j`.`journal_id` = `bd`.`content_id` where `b`.`banner_journal` = 1 and `bd`.`content_type` = 'J' and `bd`.`content_id` = 146 and `b`.`banner_from_date` <= 1740774393 and `b`.`banner_to_date` >= 1740774393 and `b`.`banner_status` = 'A' order by `b`.`banner_id` desc
      1.87msalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022Banner.php#95
      Bindings
      • 0: 1
      • 1: J
      • 2: 146
      • 3: 1740774393
      • 4: 1740774393
      • 5: A
      Backtrace
      • 13. app/Models/Banner.php:95
      • 14. app/Http/helpers.php:404
      • 17. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:124
      • 18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58
      • 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/CompilerEngine.php:73
    • select count(*) as aggregate from `uc_cart_products` where cart_id='b382086d7580a8ac77296ecc7eed7159'
      640μsalphaeurekaselec_live_10_06_2022Cart.php#271
      Backtrace
      • 15. app/Models/Cart.php:271
      • 16. view::layouts._header:291
      • 18. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/Filesystem/Filesystem.php:124
      • 19. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/PhpEngine.php:58
      • 20. vendor/laravel/framework/src/Illuminate/View/Engines/CompilerEngine.php:73
    App\Models\MultiLanguage
    1MultiLanguage.php#?
        _token
        bUvOYJZ4IPq6F7tL7yX9Iqo16cW6Udl4xnp4dqHf
        uc_cart_id
        b382086d7580a8ac77296ecc7eed7159
        _previous
        array:1 [ "url" => "https://alpha.eurekaselect.com/article/75080" ]
        _flash
        array:2 [ "old" => [] "new" => [] ]
        PHPDEBUGBAR_STACK_DATA
        []
        path_info
        /article/75080
        status_code
        200
        
        status_text
        OK
        format
        html
        content_type
        text/html; charset=UTF-8
        request_query
        []
        
        request_request
        []
        
        request_headers
        0 of 0
        array:17 [ "x-https" => array:1 [ 0 => "1" ] "host" => array:1 [ 0 => "alpha.eurekaselect.com" ] "priority" => array:1 [ 0 => "u=0, i" ] "cookie" => array:1 [ 0 => "wayfindertarget=eyJpdiI6Im9TRnJxNlM2YTNEUWlYN1U5cWo2R1E9PSIsInZhbHVlIjoiWmpaREZZd1REbUU3dlVNRDFvYWRXTzE1N2hSYUcxb2RFZ3ZwM1ltZSsxST0iLCJtYWMiOiJjOGMwYWQyYzk4ODA4MzlhZTIxOTlkY2VjOTA4Y2RmYzAzZjE4NzM1MTA1ZDA3MzVlZWUxOTkzMzI1YTlhZDVmIiwidGFnIjoiIn0%3Dwayfindertarget=eyJpdiI6Im9TRnJxNlM2YTNEUWlYN1U5cWo2R1E9PSIsInZhbHVlIjoiWmpaREZZd1REbUU3dlVNRDFvYWRXTzE1N2hSYUcxb2RFZ3ZwM1ltZSsxST0iLCJtYWMiOiJjOGMwYWQyYzk4ODA4" ] "accept-encoding" => array:1 [ 0 => "gzip, deflate, br, zstd" ] "sec-fetch-dest" => array:1 [ 0 => "document" ] "sec-fetch-user" => array:1 [ 0 => "?1" ] "sec-fetch-mode" => array:1 [ 0 => "navigate" ] "sec-fetch-site" => array:1 [ 0 => "none" ] "accept" => array:1 [ 0 => "text/html,application/xhtml+xml,application/xml;q=0.9,image/avif,image/webp,image/apng,*/*;q=0.8,application/signed-exchange;v=b3;q=0.7" ] "user-agent" => array:1 [ 0 => "Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)" ] "upgrade-insecure-requests" => array:1 [ 0 => "1" ] "sec-ch-ua-platform" => array:1 [ 0 => ""Windows"" ] "sec-ch-ua-mobile" => array:1 [ 0 => "?0" ] "sec-ch-ua" => array:1 [ 0 => ""HeadlessChrome";v="129", "Not=A?Brand";v="8", "Chromium";v="129"" ] "cache-control" => array:1 [ 0 => "no-cache" ] "pragma" => array:1 [ 0 => "no-cache" ] ]
        request_cookies
        0 of 0
        array:1 [ "wayfindertarget" => null ]
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