数字的，基于代理的还是系统动力学模型？哪种建模方法是最适合大规模人口模拟的？

Title:Numeric, Agent-based or System Dynamics Model? Which Modeling Approach is the Best for Vast Population Simulation?

Volume: 15 Issue: 8

关键词: 阿尔茨海默病，人口模型，系统动力学，基于Agent的模型，数值模型，人口预测。

摘要: Background: Alzheimer’s disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25% of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact.

Methods: Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer’s disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared.

Results: The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed.

Conclusion: In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population.

Cite this article as:

Numeric, Agent-based or System Dynamics Model? Which Modeling Approach is the Best for Vast Population Simulation?, Current Alzheimer Research 2018; 15 (8) . https://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1567205015666180202094551