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ISSN (Print): 2352-0965
ISSN (Online): 2352-0973

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Research Article

Decentralized Wind Power Forecasting using Average Output Model and Improved Stacking Ensemble Learning

Author(s): Jiaquan Yang, Wei Li*, Yuting Yan, Zhiyong Yuan, Shi Su, Hao Bai, Shuhui Pan, Jun Chen and Qindao Zhao

Volume 16, Issue 3, 2023

Published on: 25 October, 2022

Page: [239 - 247] Pages: 9

DOI: 10.2174/2352096515666221004112548

Price: $65

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Abstract

Background: Distributed wind farms cover a wide area, the internal units are far apart, and the output correlation is low. With the gradual expansion of its development scale, accurate prediction of distributed wind power has become an important means to ensure the smooth operation of the power system.

Objective: This paper proposes a decentralized wind power forecasting method based on cluster analysis and multi-model stacking ensemble learning.

Methods: Firstly, the average output model of multiple units is established through cluster analysis to eliminate redundant and repetitive features; secondly, a feature complex model is established to construct multi-dimensional combined features to fully extract feature information; then, an improved Stacking integrated learning model is proposed. Sets and model sets, while reducing the amount of model calculation, give full play to the feature adaptability of different models.

Results: The results of the proposed model are analyzed by comparison with traditional machine learning models such as SVM. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) can be reduced by up to 6.3%.

Conclusion: The results show that, compared with traditional single-model forecasting, the decentralized wind power forecasting method based on cluster analysis and multi-model stacking ensemble learning has higher forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Kmeans clustering, stacking ensemble learning, decentralized wind power, power forecasting

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Graphical Abstract

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